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Stats › Intraday and market microstructure › Algorithmic trading

Algorithmic trading narrowed large cap spreads by half and raised the market maker's take

MeasureLargest quintileSecondThird
Quoted spread-0.53, t = -3.23-0.42, t = -2.21-0.43, t = -1.44, not significant
Effective spread-0.18, t = -2.67-0.32, t = -2.23-0.35, t = -1.56, not significant
Five minute realised spread+0.35, t = 3.52+0.76, t = 3.97+1.03, t = 2.06
Five minute adverse selection-0.53, t = -3.56-1.07, t = -4.08-1.39, t = -2.06

Instrumental variable coefficients in basis points per unit of algorithmic trading, where a unit is 100 dollars of volume per electronic message, with the sign flipped so that positive means more messages per dollar traded. 1,082 US stocks, daily, 2 December 2002 to 31 July 2003, identified by the staggered rollout of automatic quoting from 29 January to 27 May 2003, with stock and day fixed effects. First stage F statistics run from 5.88 to 7.32, which is weak instrument territory and worth flagging.

Using a staggered exchange upgrade as an instrument, algorithmic trading narrows the largest quintile's quoted spread by 2.41 basis points on a mean of 5.19. The realised spread rises at the same time, so the intermediary captures more per trade.

-0.53, t = -3.23Quoted spread effect, largest quintile
2.41 bp on a 5.19 bp meanImplied narrowing per standard deviation
+0.35, t = 3.52Realised spread effect, same quintile
-0.53, t = -3.56Adverse selection effect

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