Stats Intraday and market microstructure High and low timing

49% of US stock highs land in the first hour, not 25.7%

US stocks, 2003 to 2009
49%
E-mini Nasdaq 100, 2015 to 2025
36.7%
E-mini S&P 500, 2015 to 2025
33%
Random walk baseline
25.7%

Sources: Bulkowski for the stock figure, TradingStats for the two futures figures, both private studies. The baseline is the arcsine law for a 6.5 hour session. Different instruments, different decades, different session definitions, so read these as four separate measurements and not as a trend.

The high and low of a trading day cluster at the open in every published sample. In 55 US stocks the high landed in the first hour on 49% of days, against 25.7% for a random walk. The final hour delivers fewer extremes than chance.

49%High in first hour, stocks
25.7%Random walk baseline
19%High in the last hour
33.0%E-mini S&P 500, first hour

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