Stats › Intraday et microstructure de marché › Cycle des adjudications
Treasury prices fell into auctions and rose after them, until it stopped replicating
Return differential after minus before the auction, over five days, in basis points. t statistics 2.69, 3.67 and 1.78. January 1980 to June 2008. The two-year is highlighted because it is where the published strategy test was run and where the t statistic is cleanest relative to the size of the move.
Two-year note yields peaked on auction day and sat below that level both before and after. The round trip paid 8.62 basis points over ten days with a Sharpe of 1.08. A 2025 study finds no pre-auction trend at all.
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