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Statistiche › Intraday e microstruttura del mercato › Year-end funding

The turn of the year is a credit event in funding markets and nothing at all in Treasury bills

Eurodollar, t = 3.37
30.13
Commercial paper, t = 3.92
26.05
Bankers acceptance, t = 3.85
21.55
Certificate of deposit, t = 3.22
20.29
Treasury bill, t = -0.19
-0.55

Mean change in three month money market yields across the turn of the year, in basis points, measured over twenty year ends from 1973 to 1993. Same maturity, different credit. The Eurodollar change was positive in all twenty years; the Treasury bill change was positive in nine.

Across twenty year ends, one month commercial paper yields rose 41 basis points and three month Treasury bill yields fell 0.55, which is statistically zero. The turn of the year is a credit and funding event, not a Treasury event.

+41.35bpMean year-end change in one month commercial paper yields, t = 3.92
-0.55bpThe same for three month Treasury bills, t = -0.19
+10.79bpTreasury futures funding basis on contracts straddling year end, t = 2.48
+8.30bpThe same for contracts straddling any quarter end, t = 2.34

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