Statistiche › Intraday e microstruttura del mercato › The basis trade
Three official bodies size the Treasury basis trade at 830 billion, 1,060 billion and 500 billion dollars
| Fonte e data | Basis trade | Hedge fund long Treasury exposure | Share of privately held Treasuries |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central bank note, September 2025 | about 830 bn | 2.4 trillion | 8.5% gross |
| International body, second quarter 2025 | 1,060 bn | 2,379 bn | circa il 10% |
| Research office, September 2019 | 505 bn by one method | non riportato | non riportato |
| The same, by a second method | 409 bn | non riportato | non riportato |
| The same, stated peak range | 400 to 500 bn | non riportato | non riportato |
All three bodies work from aggregations of the same confidential regulatory filings. The central bank note states its own figures are approximations consistent with the reported data rather than exact measurements, because the filings contain no trade level data, and that basis trade estimates vary significantly across methods. None of the three reports a standard error, a confidence interval or a test statistic.
The largest leveraged trade in government bonds has no agreed size. Estimates from a central bank note, an international body and a research office differ by a factor of two, and all three use the same underlying regulatory filings.
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