Stats › Bear markets and drawdowns › Markets that closed
Portuguese shares lost 90.88 per cent in real terms and the market capitalisation lost 98.49
| Episode | Average real return a year | Cumulative real | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portuguese revolution, 1974 to 1977 | -54.98% | -90.88% | nominal -44.23%, market value -98.49% |
| Germany, first world war, 1914 to 1918 | -21.67% | -62.35% | nominal +3.49% |
| Netherlands, 1944 to 1946 | not reported | -20.39% | - |
| Spanish civil war, 1936 to 1940 | about -4% | -15.09% | - |
| Switzerland, 1914 to 1916 | not reported | -14.50% | - |
| Germany, second world war | negative | not reported | a 90 per cent haircut on shares at redenomination |
Returns through market closure episodes from the long run cross country dataset. The authors state these may be overstated because they include only firms that survived the closure, and offer the change in market capitalisation as a lower bound. No significance statistics are reported. Hyperinflations are excluded from the paper's headline table and the paper does not list which country years were dropped.
The measured returns of markets that shut are the part of long run equity history that survivorship removes. Portugal's revolution produced a 90.88 per cent real loss on the index and a 98.49 per cent fall in market value.
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