Stats Bear markets and drawdowns Dot com bubble

CAPE reached 44.19 in 1999 and the decade returned -0.9% a year

Dec 1999: 44.1944.19Dec 1999Jul 2026: 40.6240.62Jul 2026Sep 1929: 32.5632.56Sep 1929Long run mean: 17.417.4Long runmean

December 1999 remains the record. Source: multpl.com, Shiller data.

Valuation sets the starting point for long horizon returns. The S&P 500's CAPE ratio reached 44.19 in December 1999, the highest reading in a series that begins in 1871, above 1929's 32.56. The decade that started there returned minus 0.9% a year.

44.19CAPE, December 1999
32.56CAPE, September 1929
-36.77%First bear market
-0.9% a yearNext ten years

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