Stats › Bear markets and drawdowns › Recessions

Stocks bottom 169 days into an average 312 day recession

Year before: -4%-4%YearbeforeTo the low: -21%-21%To thelowAt recession end: -1%-1%At recessionendYear after: 15.5%+15.5%Yearafter

The market falls before and early in a recession, bottoms around the midpoint, and has largely recovered by the time the recession is declared over. Source: Current Market Valuation, using NBER dates.

A recession is a stretch where the economy shrinks. Across the eleven US recessions since 1950 the S&P 500 bottomed about 169 days into an average 312 day contraction. By the official end date it was down only about one percent.

11Recessions since 1950
-21%Average fall to the low
169 of 312Bottom, days into it
+15.5%Year after it ended

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