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Stats › Currencies and commodities › EU carbon volatility

Carbon volatility was lower in 2025 than in 2023 or 2024, and no structural break has been found

2022: 3.3%+3.3%20222023: 1.9%+1.9%20232024: 2.2%+2.2%20242025: 1.5%+1.5%2025

Historical volatility of European Union allowances by calendar year, measured as the standard deviation of daily returns over a twenty day window. The 2024 supervisory report labels the same series as an annual standard deviation of daily returns while the 2025 and 2026 reports label it a twenty day standard deviation, so the definition is not stated consistently across vintages. These are descriptive statistics with no standard errors or tests.

European allowance volatility peaked in 2022 at 3.3 per cent and fell to 1.5 per cent by 2025. A supervisory test of two year windows either side of March 2020 found no clear break, with two of three measures rising slightly and one falling.

3.3%Historical volatility of allowances, 2022
1.5%The same, 2025
2.9%Allowance standard deviation, 2019 to 2021
5.1%Natural gas over the same period

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