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Statistik › Valutor och råvaror › Natural gas carry

Natural gas has the most negative carry of any major futures contract

Naturgas
-26.6%
Lean hogs
-14.3%
Kansas City wheat
-8.7%
Chicago wheat
-8.5%
Nickel
0.4%
Gasoil
2.7%
Koppar
4.3%

Average annualised carry across twenty-four commodities, February 1980 to September 2012, built from the two contracts closest to expiry and interpolated to a synthetic one-month future. This is the slope of the curve, the per-annum headwind a long roller faces, not a realised return.

Over thirty-two years the natural gas curve sloped against a long holder by 26.6% a year, roughly twice the next worst contract. The same paper shows commodity carry does not predict its own realisation in the time series.

-26.6%Average annualised natural gas carry, 1980 to 2012
-14.3%The next most negative contract, lean hogs
+4.3%The most positive, copper
t = 0.13Predictive coefficient of commodity carry on its own realisation

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