Statistik › Valutor och råvaror › Negative power prices
Negative prices need a renewable share above half in Germany and a third in France
| Renewable share band | Germany, pooled | France, 2025 | Czechia, pooled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 30 per cent | 0% | ej rapporterat | ej rapporterat |
| 30 to 40 per cent | 0% | 21.4% | 19.0% |
| 40 to 50 per cent | 0% | 37.7% | 57.1% |
| 50 to 60 per cent | first non zero band | ej rapporterat | 73.3% |
| 80 to 90 per cent | 34.8% | ej rapporterat | ej rapporterat |
Share of hours with negative day ahead prices, conditioned on the hourly renewable share, from hourly data for 2015 to 2025. The paper states it runs a chi square test of independence but prints neither the statistic nor a p value, and reports no regression coefficients or standard errors. Pooled across 2015 to 2025 the French negative share only reaches about five per cent above a thirty per cent renewable share, so the 2025 figures are far above the pooled average.
Hourly data gives a clear threshold: German prices are essentially never negative below a fifty per cent renewable share, while France and Czechia cross over at about thirty. Sweden, not Germany, topped the 2025 negative price table.
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