Estadísticas › Intraday y microestructura de mercado › Pre-announcement drift
The S&P 500 pays you before the data, not after it
Average S&P 500 E-mini return in basis points from the prior 16:00 close to five minutes before the release, September 1994 to May 2018. t statistics 2.08, 2.10 and 3.63 across 233, 276 and 243 events. Days coinciding with an FOMC announcement are excluded.
Holding E-mini futures from the close before a scheduled release until five minutes before the print earned about 9.5 basis points an event across non-farm payrolls, ISM and GDP. The hour after the release paid nothing at all.
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