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Statistik › Volatilität und VIX › Jumps in variance

Published estimates of the jump share of index variance differ by a factor of seven

Instrument and definitionJump shareStichprobe
S&P 500 futures, unfiltered14.4%Jan 1990 to Dec 2002
30 year bond futures, unfiltered12.6%Jan 1990 to Dec 2002
Mark against dollar, unfiltered7.2%Dec 1986 to Jun 1999
S&P 500 tracker, bipower basedetwa 2%Jun 1997 to Jul 2008
Average individual firm, bipower basedetwa 13%Jun 1997 to Jul 2008

The unfiltered measure is the realised variance minus the bipower variation, floored at zero, with no significance filter applied. The bipower based figure uses a filtered decomposition. For the same underlying index the two published figures are 14.4 and about 2 per cent. No jump share number should be quoted without its definition, its instrument and its sample attached.

One study puts jumps at 14.4 per cent of S&P 500 futures quadratic variation and another at about two per cent for the index tracker. The difference is the jump definition, and neither figure means anything without it.

14.4%Jump share of index futures variance, unfiltered measure
etwa 2%Jump share of the index tracker, bipower measure
etwa 13%The same for the average individual firm
7.2%Currency pair, unfiltered measure

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