Stats › Volatility and VIX › Jumps in variance
Published estimates of the jump share of index variance differ by a factor of seven
| Instrument and definition | Jump share | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures, unfiltered | 14.4% | Jan 1990 to Dec 2002 |
| 30 year bond futures, unfiltered | 12.6% | Jan 1990 to Dec 2002 |
| Mark against dollar, unfiltered | 7.2% | Dec 1986 to Jun 1999 |
| S&P 500 tracker, bipower based | about 2% | Jun 1997 to Jul 2008 |
| Average individual firm, bipower based | about 13% | Jun 1997 to Jul 2008 |
The unfiltered measure is the realised variance minus the bipower variation, floored at zero, with no significance filter applied. The bipower based figure uses a filtered decomposition. For the same underlying index the two published figures are 14.4 and about 2 per cent. No jump share number should be quoted without its definition, its instrument and its sample attached.
One study puts jumps at 14.4 per cent of S&P 500 futures quadratic variation and another at about two per cent for the index tracker. The difference is the jump definition, and neither figure means anything without it.
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