Statistik › Optioner, shorts och positionering › The VRP decline
The variance risk premium declined, and the break is dated 2012, not 2018
Sharpe ratio of a long S&P 500 straddle position. Monthly data from August 1987 to August 2025, 457 observations. A short straddle is the mirror of this, so the premium available to a seller fell from large to approximately zero and then changed sign over these three windows.
Formal break tests put the decline in the S&P 500 variance risk premium at August 2012, with alternative tests pointing to 2006, 2009 and 2010. None of them points to 2018. Long straddle Sharpe ratios went from minus 0.74 before 2001 to plus 0.12 after 2012.
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