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Stats › Tradeable patterns › Search volume signals

Moon Patrol predicted the market better than the word debt did

Keyword and its categoryBest test statistic
Moon Patrol, arcade game2.7
Bone cancer, illness2.4
Shelby GT 500, classic car2.4
Crystal Castles, arcade game2.4
Debt, the headline finance keyword2.3
Street Fighter, arcade game2.3
Alopecia, illness2.2
Gout, illness2.2
Nasdaq, finance2.0
Investment, finance2.0
Bonds, finance1.9

Best test statistics from re running the original design on an index tracker, Monday close to Friday close to match the weekly search data, across control keyword sets of 200 illnesses, 100 classic cars, 100 arcade games and a set of finance terms. Under a normal approximation about five per cent of absolute test statistics should exceed 1.95 by chance, and every value here sits inside that range.

A 2013 study reported a 326 per cent return from trading on search volume for the word debt. A replication found that search volume for the arcade game Moon Patrol produced a higher and more stable test statistic than debt did.

+326%Reported return on the headline keyword strategy
+16%Buy and hold over the same period
2.3Test statistic for the word debt, in replication
2.7The same for the arcade game Moon Patrol

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Below this point there are 5 sections and 3 named sources, roughly 800 words of it. Every figure carries the source it came from and the date the data is from.

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