Stats Tradeable patterns Grain seasonality

Corn rises 13% from October to June and nets nothing

MeasurementSampleResult
Average US cash corn price1974 to 2024 marketing yearsRose through June, peaking at 113% of its October price
Average US cash soybean priceSameMay, June and July all rounded to 111% of the October low
Net return to cash storageSame, all eight storage periodsDoes not differ statistically from $0 for either crop
Net return to futures hedged storageSameNever exceeds $0. For corn stored to November, April and June it was below zero with 99% confidence

Sources: Carl Zulauf, farmdoc daily, 8 Oct 2025, on fifty one marketing years of US cash prices, netting off physical storage cost and the opportunity cost of money measured with the October six month US Treasury bill rate.

A northern hemisphere harvest cannot be rescheduled, so grain arrives in weeks and is consumed over twelve months. US cash corn prices peak in June at 113 per cent of their October level. After storage and interest, that return is statistically zero.

113% of OctoberCorn June peak
111%Soybean peak
$0Net return to storage
48.40%Corn sold Oct to Jan

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