Stats › Tradeable patterns › Grain seasonality
Corn rises 13% from October to June and nets nothing
| Measurement | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Average US cash corn price | 1974 to 2024 marketing years | Rose through June, peaking at 113% of its October price |
| Average US cash soybean price | Same | May, June and July all rounded to 111% of the October low |
| Net return to cash storage | Same, all eight storage periods | Does not differ statistically from $0 for either crop |
| Net return to futures hedged storage | Same | Never exceeds $0. For corn stored to November, April and June it was below zero with 99% confidence |
Sources: Carl Zulauf, farmdoc daily, 8 Oct 2025, on fifty one marketing years of US cash prices, netting off physical storage cost and the opportunity cost of money measured with the October six month US Treasury bill rate.
A northern hemisphere harvest cannot be rescheduled, so grain arrives in weeks and is consumed over twelve months. US cash corn prices peak in June at 113 per cent of their October level. After storage and interest, that return is statistically zero.
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