Stats › Tradeable patterns › Gasoline seasonality

US summer gasoline cracks run $4.84 a barrel above winter

Jan: 16.64$+16.64$JanFeb: 17.19$+17.19$FebMar: 18.34$+18.34$MarApr: 22.19$+22.19$AprMay: 24.05$+24.05$MayJun: 23.51$+23.51$JunJul: 22.98$+22.98$JulAug: 22.61$+22.61$AugSep: 20.86$+20.86$SepOct: 19.85$+19.85$OctNov: 18.76$+18.76$NovDec: 16.35$+16.35$Dec

Source: EIA monthly spot prices, New York Harbor Conventional Gasoline Regular and Cushing WTI. My calculation, 2016 to 2025 inclusive. December is the low at $16.35 and May the high at $24.05. April to September averages $22.70 against $17.86 for October to March, a gap of $4.84 a barrel. EIA publishes a monthly conventional gasoline series for New York Harbor, not an RBOB one, so this is the right hub but not the exact deliverable grade of the futures contract.

US summer gasoline must be a harder blend by law, and the exchange writes that into the April contract. The New York Harbor crack averages five dollars a barrel wider in summer than in winter. The cause is a regulation, not a habit.

$24.05May crack, 10 year average
$16.35December crack
$4.84Summer minus winter
9 of 10 yearsMay beat February

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