Stats Tradeable patterns Gas calendar spreads

The widow maker gas spread averaged minus 5 cents since 2011

WhatFigureWhenSource
Record high March over April premium$2.13 per MMBtuMay 2022, for the March 2023 over April 2023 spreadReuters, 3 Jan 2023, trade press
Record low March over April premium10 cents per MMBtu, down 52% in a day3 Jan 2023, same spreadReuters, 3 Jan 2023, trade press
First time April traded above MarchApril 2025 above March 2025Reported Nov 2024, storage 3,929 Bcf, 7.6% above the five year averageReuters, trade press
The Amaranth spread, before and afterFrom "a high of nearly $2.50 per MMBtu" to "less than 60 cents", a drop of 75%July to September 2006, for the March 2007 over April 2007 spreadUS Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, 25 Jun 2007
The step at the next boundary alongApril 2026 expired at $3.10 on 27 Mar, May 2026 opened at $2.89 on 30 Mar27 to 30 Mar 2026American Gas Association, 2 Apr 2026

Sources named per row. The two record values come from a single Reuters story of 3 Jan 2023 and no exchange publication confirms either, so treat them as press records rather than official ones.

US natural gas storage empties through March and refills from April, so the two futures contracts sit either side of a seasonal boundary. The realised difference between them has averaged minus five cents per MMBtu since 2011. The premium is insurance, not an edge.

-$0.05Realised spread, 2011-2026
8 of 16Years positive
$2.13Record high premium
$6.6bnAmaranth loss

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