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Statistik › Währungen und Rohstoffe › Safe haven currencies

The franc strengthens most when equities fall, and the dollar is on the wrong side of the trade

Pair against the dollarCoefficienttObservations
Swiss franc0.1411.442,906
Euro0.129.432,911
Sterling0.066.912,937
Japanischer Yen0.042.842,942

Multivariate regressions of daily exchange rate returns on S&P 500 returns, with Treasury note returns, foreign exchange volatility and lags as controls, Newey West standard errors with two lags, 1993 to 2006. Quotes are direct, in units of foreign currency per dollar, so a positive coefficient means the foreign currency strengthens when the S&P falls.

Regressing exchange rates on the S&P 500 over 1993 to 2006 gives the Swiss franc a coefficient of 0.14 with t of 11.44 and the yen only 0.04 with t of 2.84. The dollar depreciates against the franc and the euro in equity selloffs.

0.14, t = 11.44Swiss franc coefficient against the S&P 500
0.12, t = 9.43Euro
0.06, t = 6.91Sterling
0.04, t = 2.84Japanischer Yen

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