Stats Seasonality and calendar Santa Claus rally

Seven days at the turn of the year returned 1.3%

MeasureValue
Santa avg1.3%
Random avg0.3%
Santa hit %78%
Random hit %58%

Left pair is average return, right pair is hit rate. The window returns roughly four times as much as a random stretch of the same length. Source: LPL Research, 1950 to 2025.

The Santa Claus rally is the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of January, and nothing else. Since 1950 those seven sessions have averaged 1.3 per cent against 0.3 for a random seven days. The excess is real and it is small.

+1.3%Santa window average
+0.3%Random 7 days average
78%Santa window positive
58%Random 7 days positive

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