Stats › Seasonality and calendar › Halloween effect
Winter returns 7.0% a year, summer 2.1%, since 1950
The winter window returns more than three times as much annualised. Both are positive. Sources: Fidelity and Lambda Finance backtest.
The US stock market year splits into two six month halves, and they do not pay the same. Since 1950 November to April has annualised about seven per cent for the S&P 500 and May to October about two. Both halves are positive, so selling in May sells a profit.
+7.0%Nov to Apr, annualised
+2.1%May to Oct, annualised
73%Winter periods positive
64%Summer periods positive
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