Stats › Seasonality and calendar › January barometer

The January barometer is 84.5% right, the base rate is 73%

After up
January
86.5%
Any year
base rate
73%
After down
January
44.1%

The unconditional base rate is about 73%. After an up January it rises to 86.5%. After a down January it falls to 44.1%. The gap between the two conditional figures is where the signal, if any, lives.

The claim is that a positive January in the S&P 500 predicts a positive year. Its own advocates put the accuracy at 84.5 per cent, against a base rate of about 73 per cent for any year. January also sits inside the year it is predicting.

84.5%Published accuracy
73.8%Flat years as misses
73%Any year positive
44.1%Up year after down Jan

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