Stats › Seasonality and calendar › Election cycle

Year three of a US presidential term averaged 10.2%

Year 1 post-elec: 3%+3%Year 1post-elecYear 2 midterm: 4%+4%Year 2midtermYear 3 pre-elec: 10.2%+10.2%Year 3pre-elecYear 4 election: 6%+6%Year 4election

Year three is more than three times year one. Source: SoFi, citing the Stock Trader's Almanac 2025 edition.

A US president serves four years, and the Dow has behaved differently in each of them. The year before an election averaged 10.2 per cent against about 3 per cent for the year straight after one. The whole claim rests on about thirty complete cycles.

+10.2%Year three, pre-election
+3%Year one, post-election
+15%Year three since 1943
about 30Complete cycles measured

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