Stats › Long run returns › Holding period odds
Every 20 year S&P 500 window since 1928 finished positive
The curve flattens quickly. Most of the improvement happens between one and five years. Source: History of Market, S&P 500 100 year returns.
The S&P 500 rises in most years and falls in a minority of them. About seven in ten single years finished positive, and every twenty year window since 1928 did. The twenty year figure rests on fewer than five independent periods.
about 73%One year positive
about 88%Five years positive
about 94%Ten years positive
100%Twenty years positive
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