Stats Long run returns GDP and returns

China grew 9.4% a year while its stocks lost 5.5%

Ritter 00-02: -0.37-0.37Ritter00-02DMS 00-00: -0.27-0.27DMS00-00Ritter 00-11: -0.39-0.39Ritter00-11Estrada dev: -0.39-0.39EstradadevRitter EM loc: -0.41-0.41RitterEM locRitter EM usd: -0.47-0.47RitterEM usdEstrada 70-11: -0.04-0.04Estrada70-11DMS 51-00: 0.03+0.03DMS51-00

Eight measurements across three researchers and four sample windows. Not one is meaningfully positive. Sources: Ritter 2005 and 2012, Dimson Marsh Staunton as cited by Ritter, and Estrada 2012.

Shareholders own claims on companies that are already listed, not on the economy. Across countries since 1900, faster economic growth has come with slightly lower stock returns, not higher. Buying the fastest growing economy has no track record behind it.

-0.37Correlation since 1900
-0.47Emerging markets, dollars
9.4% a yearChina real GDP growth
-5.5% a yearChina real stock returns

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