Stats › Long run returns › Factor replication
64% of 447 published stock anomalies failed a retest
Trading friction anomalies fail almost entirely. Momentum has the best record and still fails a third of the time. Source: Hou, Xue and Zhang, NBER working paper 23394.
Academic finance publishes hundreds of factors claimed to predict which stocks rise. When 447 of them were retested with market value weighting, roughly two in three were insignificant. A published edge, on its own, is not evidence that a strategy works.
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