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Estimates of the German dividend tax scheme range from 0.4 billion euro to 7.2 billion for the same conduct

FigureMethodPériodeType
EUR 0.441bn to 1.085bnEconometric, index constituents, full significance statistics2009 to 2011Modelled
EUR 7.19bnGrossed up from settlement data, self described lower bound, no significance statistics2005 to 2011Modelled
EUR 3.1bnSum of final casesTo 31 December 2023Measured
EUR 3.8bnVolume of 380 suspected cases still in processingSame dateMeasured, not yet recovered

The two modelled estimates differ by a factor of between six and sixteen and cover different periods, so part of the gap is scope rather than disagreement. The econometric paper makes the comparison itself and describes the larger figure as a tentative estimate. No figure here is averaged with any other.

An econometric study puts the German short sale losses at 0.441 to 1.085 billion euro. A second study using a different method puts them at 7.19 billion. The tax authorities have actually recovered 3.1 billion.

EUR 0.441bn to 1.085bnEconometric estimate of the loss, 2009 to 2011
EUR 7.19bnA second study's estimate, 2005 to 2011
EUR 3.1bnActually recovered by tax authorities to end 2023
43.1%Recovery rate on the cum ex cases

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