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Estimates of the German dividend tax scheme range from 0.4 billion euro to 7.2 billion for the same conduct
| Cifra | Method | Periodo | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR 0.441bn to 1.085bn | Econometric, index constituents, full significance statistics | 2009 to 2011 | Modelled |
| EUR 7.19bn | Grossed up from settlement data, self described lower bound, no significance statistics | 2005 to 2011 | Modelled |
| EUR 3.1bn | Sum of final cases | To 31 December 2023 | Measured |
| EUR 3.8bn | Volume of 380 suspected cases still in processing | Same date | Measured, not yet recovered |
The two modelled estimates differ by a factor of between six and sixteen and cover different periods, so part of the gap is scope rather than disagreement. The econometric paper makes the comparison itself and describes the larger figure as a tentative estimate. No figure here is averaged with any other.
An econometric study puts the German short sale losses at 0.441 to 1.085 billion euro. A second study using a different method puts them at 7.19 billion. The tax authorities have actually recovered 3.1 billion.
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