Stats › Options, shorts and positioning › Consumer sentiment
Consumer sentiment
Once a month the University of Michigan asks households how they feel. About their own finances, about business conditions, about whether now looks like a good time to buy things. Those answers get bundled into a single number, benchmarked so that 1966 equals 100, and that number is the most watched confidence reading in the United States. It feeds into forecasting models because consumer spending is roughly two thirds of the economy.
In May 2026 it came in at 44.8. The long run average is 83.9, so this is roughly half of normal, and it is the lowest reading in a series that starts in 1978, below anything recorded in the 2008 financial crisis, the 1980 recession or the 2020 shutdown. That sounds like it ought to mean something dramatic for markets. The odd part, and the reason I made a page out of it, is that it mostly doesn't. Sentiment has come apart from spending in recent years, and as a market indicator it has historically pointed the opposite way to intuition.
What's here is the current reading, the two sub indices covering how people feel about today and about the year ahead, what consumers expect from inflation, and a footnote that matters more than most footnotes do, about the survey changing how it collects answers in 2024. One source, dated, sitting at the bottom of the page. Read it before you quote anything from up here.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 44.8 in May 2026, a record low in a series going back to 1978, below the previous trough set in June 2022. The long run average is 83.9, so the reading is roughly 47% below its historical norm. Consumers reported year ahead inflation expectations of 4.8% and long run expectations of 3.9%. Sentiment this weak has historically been a poor signal about the economy and, if anything, a mildly favourable one for subsequent equity returns.
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Below this point there are 8 sections, 1 chart and 1 named source, roughly 1200 words of it. Every figure carries the source it came from and the date the data is from.
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